** Het advies van het CAft op de Ontwerpbegroting 2018 en het FEM 2018-2021

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De Ontwerpbegroting 2018 en het Financieel Economisch Memorandum 2018-2021

Op 2 februari jl. is de Ontwerpbegroting en het Financieel Economisch Memorandum 2018-2021 door het College Aruba Financieel Toezicht ontvangen. Het FEM bevat de maatregelen van de zittende regering die erop gericht zijn het begrotingstekort binnen 4 jaar tijd om te zetten in een begrotingsoverschot.

 

Het tekort van 2018 komt uit op 3,9% bbp, dat de tekortnorm zoals voorgeschreven door de LAft ad 0,5% veruit overschrijdt. Het uitsmeren van het tekort over meerdere jaren is uitgesloten, waardoor vast staat dat de LAft-norm voor 2018 definitief niet wordt gehaald.

 

Het tekort van Awg 190 miljoen voor 2018 (inclusief de maatregelen) brengt de schuldquote einde 2018 naar 91% bbp. Een aanvaardbaar welvaartsniveau voor kleine markten als Aruba wordt bepaald op 40% bbp.

 

In de Ontwerpbegroting bedraagt het financieringstekort Awg 275 miljoen (exclusief de maatregelen). Vergeleken bij 2017 houdt dit een verslechtering in van Awg 120 miljoen.

 

Uit de hand gelopen kosten PPP-projecten
De Ontwerpbegroting laat een stijging zien in de kosten. Dit komt onder anderen door een steile stijging in de kosten in verband met de PPP-projecten Green Corridor, Watty Vos Boulevard en het Ziekenhuis, waarvoor een beschikbaarheidsvergoeding van Awg 38 miljoen is geraamd, maar waarvan de kosten in 2020 zullen stijgen tot minimaal Awg 65 miljoen. Andere veroorzakers van de stijging betreffen de kapitaalinvesteringen, subsidies, goederen en diensten en bijdragen en verrekeningen.

 

Daarentegen zijn de personeelskosten, die 1/3 van de begroting bezetten, verlaagd tot een aanvaardbaar niveau van Awg 371 miljoen. Dit is positief, want daarvoor was steeds sprake van een stijgende lijn in de personeelslasten.

 

(Tijdelijke) verhoging BBO en BAZV naar totaal 6%
De in het FEM voorgestelde maatregelen houden ondermeer een tijdelijke verhoging van de BBO van 1,5% naar 3% per 1 juli 2018 in. De BAZV gaat ook omhoog en zal per 1 juli 2018 3% bedragen. De accijnzen op benzine worden naar zeggen ook verhoogd.

 

Automatisering van de belastinginning
Verder wordt Awg 15 miljoen geinvesteerd in de automatisering van de belastinginning. Dit moet leiden tot een efficientere belastinginning. Gestreefd wordt naar een inhaalslag van Awg 27 miljoen aan achterstallige belastingen in 2018 en Awg 45 miljoen in 2019 en 2020.

 

Niet toereikend, voorlopig geen PPP-projecten
Het CAft geeft aan, dat de maatregelen in het FEM weliswaar een stap in de goede richting zijn maar niet toereiken om binnen afzienbare termijn tot houdbare overheidsfinancien te komen. Volgens het CAft moet ernaar worden gestreefd een begrotingsoverschot van 0,5% te bereiken liefst eerder dan 2021. Verder raadt het CAft aan om in de toekomst voorlopig af te zien van PPP-projecten, omdat de beschikbaarheids-vergoedingen voor de bestaande PPP-projecten enorm drukken op de meerjarenbegroting.

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